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Unpacking the Assumptions Behind GHG Estimates of EPRA's LNG Title

I have received a number of requests to explain the differences between my estimates of the Energy Permitting Reform Act's LNG Title and other analyses. The attached graphic unpacks and compares some key parameters in Jesse Jenkins' low and high cases (using his 9-19-24 analysis here) and the net cases I have published here. All numbers are based on annual estimates multiplied by 20 years. Blue bars indicate increased global emissions, while red bars indicate reductions in emissions. Slides can be downloaded in the file below as well to better view the graphics.





Both analyses find that increased LNG exports from EPRA will increase US natural gas prices. A regional breakdown of household gas price increases, using Jenkin's range of price impacts, follows:


Below is a state-by-state look at increased annual energy expenditures across all sectors from increased natural gas prices. Calculations are based on the mid-point of J. Jenkins' natural gas price increase (12%), applied to EIA 2022 energy consumption data.

Millions of Dollars Annually

Note that "Electric Power" expenditures are based on the state where power is generated, not consumed, which underestimates costs in electricity import states and overestimates costs in export states.



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